US Attack on Iran Pushes Global Oil Prices Higher

U.S. airstrikes on Iranian nuclear sites, global oil prices surged to five-month highs, sending shockwaves through markets and raising concerns over energy security. The escalation has heightened fears of supply disruption through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for about one-fifth of the world’s seaborne oil.

Jun 23, 2025 - 12:39
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US Attack on Iran Pushes Global Oil Prices Higher
US Attack on Iran Pushes Global Oil Prices Higher

U.S. airstrikes on Iranian nuclear sites, global oil prices surged to five-month highs, sending shockwaves through markets and raising concerns over energy security. The escalation has heightened fears of supply disruption through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for about one-fifth of the world’s seaborne oil.

  • Oil Surge: Brent crude and WTI crude rose over 4%, then steadied between $75–79 per barrel 

  • Markets React: Asian shares slipped amid risk aversion; U.S. futures took a hit.

  • Hormuz Risks: Iran's parliament backed language to close the Strait of Hormuz, a move that could spike oil prices above $100 in a month

  • Geopolitical Premium: Goldman Sachs adds a $12/barrel risk premium; Brent could reach $90–110/barrel if disruptions worsen.

  • U.S. and Israel struck Iranian nuclear facilities, escalating regional conflict

  • Global supply fears intensified with the real threat of Iran blocking Hormuz, through which ~20% of seaborne oil passes 

  • Technical surge: Brent briefly hit $81.40; WTI followed close behind 

Brent Crude: Went above $81, now around $78.5/barrel.

WTI Crude: Rose above $78, then settled near $75.3/barrel 

Price drivers: Over $12/barrel geopolitical risk, partly easing as no immediate Strait closure occurred

Asian Markets: Hang Seng, Nikkei, and Kospi all down 0.2–1.5% amid uncertainty.

European & U.S. Open: Futures dipped; equities cautious.

Dollar strength: As a haven, the U.S. dollar gained, with the rupee and other emerging currencies pressured

  • Rystad Energy: Oil could increase by $3–5 at open following the strike 

  • Goldman Sachs: Spot risk premium now $12/barrel; further rises expected if Hormuz is closed.

  • Saxo Bank: Geopolitical premium is likely to remain until regional tensions ease.

  • World Bank/IMF: Flag potential for global growth slowdown from energy shock.

Further escalation: Iran could retaliate by blocking Hormuz or attacking U.S. assets

Diplomatic moves: UN, EU, and Asian governments urging restraint to lure Iran back into talks.

Market volatility: Oil could swing sharply with any new developments.

Policy response: Governments might consider strategic fuel reserves to protect consumers.

The U.S. strikes on Iran have rattled global oil markets, pushing prices to multi-month highs. With real threats to the Strait of Hormuz, analysts warn of even larger price spikes ahead. The coming days will be crucial: Iran’s next move—and global diplomatic responses—will shape whether oil surges into record territory or gradually stabilizes.

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