Above-Normal Monsoon to Hit Pakistan This Year

Pakistan is expected to witness above-normal monsoon rains in 2025, according to forecasts from the Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD). This unusual weather pattern could bring both opportunities and challenges for the country, impacting agriculture, water resources, urban infrastructure, and disaster preparedness.

An above-normal monsoon refers to seasonal rainfall levels that are higher than the long-term average. For Pakistan, this typically means:

• Rainfall exceeding 110% of the average seasonal rainfall (as defined by PMD).

• Extended periods of rain and stronger-than-usual monsoon winds.

• Possible disruption in normal climate patterns and weather systems.

An above-normal monsoon refers to seasonal rainfall levels that are higher than the long-term average. For Pakistan, this typically means:

• Rainfall exceeding 110% of the average seasonal rainfall (as defined by PMD).

• Extended periods of rain and stronger-than-usual monsoon winds.

• Possible disruption in normal climate patterns and weather systems.

An above-normal monsoon refers to seasonal rainfall levels that are higher than the long-term average. For Pakistan, this typically means:

• Rainfall exceeding 110% of the average seasonal rainfall (as defined by PMD).

• Extended periods of rain and stronger-than-usual monsoon winds.

• Possible disruption in normal climate patterns and weather systems.

According to PMD, the 2025 monsoon season in Pakistan is expected to:

• Begin in mid-to-late June, slightly earlier than the typical July onset.

• The peak is during July and August, with the highest intensity rainfall.

• Continue until mid-September, possibly extending due to climate variations.

The PMD has identified several key areas that are likely to receive heavier-than-normal rainfall:

• Punjab: Lahore, Faisalabad, Multan, Sialkot, and Rawalpindi.

• Sindh: Karachi, Hyderabad, and Sukkur.

• Khyber Pakhtunkhwa: Peshawar, Swat, and Abbottabad.

• Balochistan: Quetta and surrounding areas may face flash floods.

• Azad Jammu & Kashmir (AJK): Risk of landslides due to intense downpours.

• Gilgit-Baltistan: Localized heavy showers and glacial melt concerns.

This unusual weather forecast is closely linked to global climate change. Meteorological experts suggest:

• Warmer ocean temperatures in the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal are intensifying monsoon winds.

• El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) patterns are influencing the regional climate.

• Glacier melt and rising temperatures are contributing to unpredictable rain patterns in the north.

The government of Pakistan, through its agencies like the National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA) and Provincial Disaster Management Authorities (PDMAs), is actively monitoring the situation.

Measures Underway:

• Weather monitoring stations are being upgraded.

• Disaster simulations are being conducted in flood-prone districts.

• Relief funding is being allocated in advance.

• Public awareness campaigns are being planned across media platforms.

However, timely implementation and inter-agency coordination remain crucial for these plans to be effective

Looking at historical monsoon data from PMD:

• The 2022 monsoon led to catastrophic floods, affecting over 33 million people.

• 2010’s flood crisis, driven by extreme monsoon rains, displaced millions and caused massive agricultural damage.

• Above-normal monsoons have occurred roughly every 6–7 years, often linked to regional climate shifts.

This highlights the importance of preparedness, resilient infrastructure, and community awareness

As Pakistan braces for an above-normal monsoon in 2025, both the government and citizens must act now to prepare. While the rains could boost agriculture and water supply, the risks of flooding, landslides, and infrastructure strain are very real.

Preparedness today can prevent disaster tomorrow.

Let’s stay informed, support community preparedness, and work together to face the season ahead with resilience