The Global Energy Crisis: Is The World Running Out Of Oil

Fossil fuels such as natural gas and petroleum are nonrenewable. It was formed millions of years ago, from the slow, pressurized decomposition of plants and other organic materials, and it would take millions more years to create new reserves.

When Will Fossil Fuels Run Out?

We have more knowledge about environmental health and its effect on the planet. Climate change, rising global temperatures, and the drive for renewable energy take center stage in news coverage. However, despite the risks linked to fossil fuels, they continue to be the main energy source for residences and businesses.

An indisputable truth is that fossil fuels are a limited resource. The major question is: When will they run out? Although some projections indicate a near future, others imply that economic and technological factors may extend their availability.

The Problem of Demand

Before considering depletion timelines, we should consider the current energy situation. The renewable movement still leads to a charge; demand for fossil fuels is still high. According to the Energy and CO2 Status Report, global energy demand rose 2.1% over the coming years, more than doubled since 2016. 

The demand is met predominantly by oil, coal, and natural gas. In 2017, fossil fuels provided 70% of the global energy growth right now,  Fortunately, renewables are catching up, experiencing record-high growth, especially in China and the U.S. Fossil fuels are still the main source of energy, which makes their impending depletion a burning.

When Will Fossil Fuels End?

Millions of years have passed since fossil fuels started forming. However, humans have extensively utilized them only for the past two centuries. Despite their abundance, our relentless consumption means they are depleting rapidly. Current estimates indicate that these fossil fuels might run dry by 2060. However, further exploration and technological advancements may uncover new reserves, delaying this timeline.

When Will We Run Out of Oil?

• Oil is very special. Some estimates suggest known oil reserves will be fully gone by 2052, However, this doesn’t necessarily mean we will completely run out. Given the Earth's depth, undiscovered reserves may still exist. It is just that beyond certain extreme depths it becomes economically wasteful due to rising fuel prices. 
• Oil is considered the quickest to disappear among fossil fuels due to its heavy dependence on the global transportation industry. The International Energy Agency (IEA) claims that after a major increase in its demand throughout 2016 and 2017, oil demand slowed down in the last quarter, but another increase in demand is expected. rising and falling demand continues, but the long-term trend remains that oil, as a finite resource, is becoming more difficult to extract economically. 
• Adding to the complexity, energy crises caused by oil shortages have already disrupted economies. In 2021, natural gas prices in Europe increased to ten times the previous year, while industrial activities in China shut down due to coal shortages.  The UK faced fuel station outages, and India’s coal reserves dwindled to dangerously low levels.
• Burning fossil fuels, as scientists have warned for decades, accelerates climate change, and rising costs will eventually make renewables the more viable option. The phase out of oil is inevitable it's just a matter of when.

The Hubbert Curve Theory

Oil production follows a predictable pattern known as the Hubbert Curve, proposed by Shell geologist Marion King Hubbert in 1956. According to this theory, oil production rises, peaks, and then declines as reserves are depleted.

Peak oil denotes where production reaches its highest level before declining. As demand continues to grow while supply dwindles, prices will rise, making extraction less economically viable.

However, advances in oil extraction techniques, such as fracking, have delayed peak oil. Additionally, the increasing adoption of electric vehicles and renewable energy sources reduced oil dependency. The IEA estimates that oil demand may peak by 2028 as alternative energy sources become more prevalent.

What Happens When Fossil Fuels Run Out?

When Russia invaded Ukraine, the world got a look toward a future of oil scarcity. Countries that relied on Russian oil witnessed soaring prices for fuel and power outages.  

A more optimistic scenario involves a well-planned transition to renewable energy. Countries that invest in alternatives such as solar, wind, and biofuels can mitigate the economic and social disruptions of fossil fuel depletion.

The truth is, that the global oil supply cannot sustain current demand forever. Even if technology allows us to extract every last drop, rising costs and climate concerns will push the world toward renewable solutions.